With universal No. 1 Southern California seemingly certain to reach the national championship game — those Arizona State and Oregon obstacles look smaller and smaller all the time — the real drama lies with the unfolding derby between the Southeastern and Big 12 conferences. Which of these leagues, each stocked with multiple top-10 teams, will supply the Trojans’ competition?

With no offense to the great offenses of Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas, here’s hoping it’s the SEC.

Although we generally agree with the sentiment—in other words, we’d love to play in the title game against an SEC opponent—we always get a little nervous when the Trojans’ appearance in said title game becomes a foregone conclusion. Especially when that happens in September.

UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel has measured up to USC coach Pete Carroll. The Trojans’ 14 losses over the course of Carroll’s seven-plus seasons have been by a total of 59 points. The Bruins needed only one 59-point loss for Neuheisel to tie Carroll.

He should be catching up on total losses here pretty soon as well.

The makers of these odds have clearly taken the “Stun Factor” into consideration. That’s my coinage for the strange spell that settles on USC’s early-season, non-conference opponents. It explains why quality teams with terrific athletes come into these September epics looking to make a statement, but end up looking like dynamited fish, belly-up and wondering what concussive force just rocked their world in yet another Trojans rout.

A brief history of the Stun Factor: In 2003, the Trojans dispensed with Auburn, BYU and Hawaii by the combined score of 109-50. A year later, Va. Tech, Colorado St. and BYU were outscored by the men of Troy, 115-23.

And then things got really ugly for ‘SC’s early-season cultural-exchange partners. Recall the Leinart, Bush and White-led vivisections of Hawaii (63-17) and Arkansas (70-17) in ’05. So morale-killing was the latter beatdown that it was likened by Reggie Herring, then the Razorbacks’ defensive coordinator, to “having your dog run over, your wife left you and your house burned down.” So when the Trojans hung only half a hundred on Herring & Co. the following season, Arkansas’ sports info office celebrated the “vast improvement” of the defense, which had yielded a stingy 472 total yards (down from 736!) If only Arkansas had played the Trojans a couple more times, the Hogs would’ve held them to negative yardage!

Then he offers a plausible explanation for why SC has performed so well against early-season opponents—and why they’ve stumbled against lesser foes.

What Small didn’t discern, and I don’t blame him, was the method to this madness. In the end, says Carroll, the ritual is about trust. “The preparation [for the upcoming opponent] is done. We want them to trust that everything’s OK, that we got everything right. There’s no need to be all uptight or afraid of making mistakes, cause that part’s done. Now it’s time to go out, relax, have a little fun, play a little Trojanball.”

This explains, for me, why the Trojans under Carroll have been so adept at taking the pressure that attends huge games, national games, and making it their ally. The bigger the stage, the better they play.

Their problem is the converse: The smaller the stage, the greater the likelihood that the Trojans get caught sleepwalking, as happened against Oregon St. in ’06 and Stanford last season.

Hopefully this’ll hold true against OSU but not against, say, Washington.

In addition to six straight seasons of 11 wins and a BCS bowl, this is a nice little stat that sidesteps controversies over AP championships and whatnot.

The buzz: Carroll has made USC arguably the premier program in the nation. Carroll’s 76-14 record in eight seasons gives him the best winning percentage of any Division I coach with at least five years’ experience. He has won 74 of his past 83 games along with a share of two national titles and a record six consecutive Pac-10 championships.

But wait—here’s a list that puts Carroll at #2.

2. Pete Carroll : USC : Talk about tough. How hard is it to put this guy into the 2 slot? Easily the most respected team in the country amongst his coaching brethren, year in and year out. Pete has built an absoulute MONSTER in South California since his arrival 8 years ago. In his 7 years as head coach, the Trojans are merely 76-14. And that includes his 1st year with a 6-6 record with a very poor team. Take away the 1st year dagger, and Pete is 70-8 over 6 years. He also has 2 National Titles to claim (although LSU fans will debate that). Since his 2nd year in LA, Pete has held the Trojans as serious National Contenders in EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Bar none. His recruiting has been 2nd to none. His coaching, could be questioned, but I don’t know that I could. The absolute talent that he has brought into LA is unquestioned. Simply the best of the best in the country.

So who’s #1, and why? Jim Tressel, because

Pete’s record at USC may look to be more impressive, but his legacy has some certain conspiracy rivaled around it right now as well. Mr. Tressel has no contenders to the cleanest and best run program in the nation right now. NONE. Sure, he has had his few stragglers, but for the large part, “The Vest” has brought in solid young men who want to play football and get an education at the same time. That has to be respected.

There you have it. I’m not sure what it means that Pete’s legacy has some certain conspiracy rivaled around it, but whatever it means, it was enough to knock him from the top spot. That and the academics, apparently, even though USC’’s program has a higher graduation rate.