Southern Cal will not win the Pac-10.

I’m picking only one USC to have a shot at their conference title this year, and if you read above you can see it’s not the powerhouse Trojans. Once again the Men of Troy are stocked with NFL-caliber talent, but the rest of the conference is catching up, and I don’t think the past couple seasons are an indication that Southern Cal has what it takes to make it eight in a row in the Pac-10.

QB Mark Sanchez did fine last season filling in for John David Booty and RB Joe McKnight is a playmaker that’ll have people soon forgetting all about Reggie Bush. Still the Trojans lost some good talent, especially on defense, from a squad that dropped two games last year — including the shocker to Stanford.

I wouldn’t expect another clunker like that out of this team but anyone who thinks they can look past Oregon just because Dennis Dixon is gone might be in for a surprise. Combine that game with a date the very next weekend against last year’s conference co-champion Arizona State and the Trojans have a tough time ahead if they expect to hold on to the crown.

Of course out-of-conference schedule doesn’t go very far in determining the Pac-10 winner, but to say Southern Cal has a huge game in week three when they host Ohio State is a massive understatement. If the Trojans lose that game they’ll be waiving goodbye to their national title hopes before they’ve even started their conference schedule and it could be the catalyst that eventually sends them down from the Pac-10′s top spot.

We’re not going to predict a national title game berth, as some have, but the conference championship seems relatively safe. After all, couldn’t you say the Trojans lost some good talent, especially on defense, from a squad that dropped two games last year pretty much every year? And we’ve certainly lost later than week 3 and still been in contention for the national title.

Our only quibble is that Texas Tech should show up in the worst list, rather than the most boring list (although it certainly qualifies as boring too.)

10. Mark Mangino begins a rigorous pre-season fitness regimen.
9. OU cheerleaders scramble to memorize the words to Boomer Sooner.
8. Nerds across the country prepare for twelve weeks out of the shadows as they don Micheal Jackson-esque pseudo-military uniforms to march in the band.
7. A Northwest Florida cryogenics lab begins de-icing Bobby Bowden.
6. Joe Paterno starts sundowning.
5. BYU embraces its African-American population (may also be an indicator of the start of college basketball, or track, or baseball, or hockey).
4. Los Angeles County Superior Court places priority on the probation hearings of the USC backfield.
3. Schools like Boise State escape safety school obscurity and begin to matter.
2. Perennial powerhouse Notre Dame prepares for a daunting schedule against such formidable opponents as San Diego State, Stanford (err, wait a minute), and Navy.
1. Louisiana increases to the 49th most desirable state as LSU makes a run at another championship.

Speaking of 2018, it looks like the SC/ND contract doesn’t run past that year—unlike their contract with Stanford, which has Stanford on the docket for 2019 and 2020.

* Apparently the first blog to break this story was NDNation.

The other 50% is not as concerned, and here’s why: every time a new head coach comes on the scene who poses a threat, Pete Carroll pays full attention to him and handles him appropriately (lessons learned with Jeff Tedford, Charlie Weis, Dennis Erickson and presumably next season with Jim Harbaugh). Chow may have lost some of his mystique because Vince Young hasn’t improved one iota since joining the Titans. And with the right mix of players, the Sarkiffin offense was far more inventive and productive than any Chow offense ever has. Sure, Booty didn’t develop like Palmer or Leinart, but as CommishRob will tell you, that guy is like four foot three. Also, Chow clashed egos with Carroll, is there any reason to think it won’t happen with another big ego? And he would have to take a 60 to 70% pay cut; even if you’re a multi-millionaire that’s a mega drop. Sure their offense will be more potent, but it’s not like USC isn’t used to dealing with (and shutting down) high-powered offenses in the conference already. And if UCLA goes 10-2 next season and challenges for the Pac-10 title and a BCS berth, someone will hire Walker away ASAP. Which brings us back to Neuheisel: even in his absolute prime, in a state where he didn’t share recruits with anybody, a great stadium, facilities, etc., he had one great team and a bunch of pretty good ones. I think the guy is a good coach, but it’s not like Urban Meyer just moved in down the street.

So I’m torn. My lean right now is, that Stanford loss was so seismic and devastating, that Carroll isn’t going to take anybody lightly and hopefully rededicate himself and his staff to getting this thing back on top. I believe they’ll squeeze out one more title before he returns to the pros.

In the meantime, kudos to UCLA. They are doing exactly what I’d have done as their AD or head coach. Another Pac-10 power only helps SC. Look at the SEC.

P.S. Don’t miss Scott Wolf’s take on this.

I am a pro-playoff guy and have been since I became aware that this is a sport and not a beauty contest. For 10 seasons, we have seen the BcS change its stripes more times than I care to count and each time against the wishes of most college football fans. I have finally had it. I don’t want a Plus-One; that just means that this year Virginia Tech gets in for beating no one except for a BC team they already lost to, and OU (my #2 team) would be in semi-finals against the alleged #1 and #2 teams. What a crock.

I want an 8-team playoff. I know 16 will never happen and I think that given a season like this, where 8 teams can say they should have a shot at showing they are the best, we should give them the opportunity. If not, then go back to the old beauty contest way with traditional bowl match-ups; Ohio State vs. USC in the Rose, LSU vs. Georgia in the Sugar (since they didn’t play during the regular season), Oklahoma vs. Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl (why did the Big 12 get hosed out of Miami for New Year’s for Phoenix?) and West Virginia vs. Missouri in the Fiesta Bowl. The season was amazing from day 1 with Appalachian State beating Michigan in Ann Arbor and it has propelled them on to the semi-finals of the Division 1-AA playoffs. See, all of the other kids are supposed to be the same but big time football is the sacred cow and apparently no would be excited about Ohio State hosting Kansas, LSU hosting USC, Virginia Tech vs. Missouri and Georgia at Oklahoma. Very sad that a sport that is just the best for 3 full months becomes irrelevant in 24 hours.

Now on to the Trojans: I was not a believer as many of you know. I felt that the “Dwarf from Shreveport” would never take this team anywhere and that we were destined for 9-3 and a trip to San Diego. Well the injury bug struck every Pac-10 contender and so we got another BcS trip and a 4th Rose Bowl in 6 years along with a 6th consecutive conference title. This team came on late and really looked good on for a half against ASU and 3 quarters against Nebraska. That was really it—the rest of the season the offensive play calling was inconsistent and the defense had to make just enough plays so the team got wins. I am not sure if the offense was so underwhelming because of the Dwarf’s inability to execute the plays, or Sarkisian feeling that he was the smartest guy there and thinking that no matter what we should throw all the time. The other thing I never got is why Stafon Johnson didn’t get more carries—either he was really injured or again Pete gave his seniors the benefit of the doubt sticking with Chauncey all season and Booty against Stanford.

The whole season for USC really boils down to the last 4 minutes of the Stanford game. They had a great game plan for SC and we played right into by being to confident in our offense. Three runs and a punt and we sneak out with a win because they were not going 80 yards against our defense with no time outs. Meanwhile, we would be 11-1 and playing Ohio State. But we were not smart enough to figure out that stats aren’t important wins are. Oh well, now we can find out if it was really the “Dwarf” that held this team back as in ’08 they will start the season in the Top 5 and we will see if Sanchez or Mustain are ready to fill the shoes of Matt Leinart who is the gold standard for SC QB play. Until we do the fans will not be satisfied and we will keep playing against crappy Big-10 teams in the Rose Bowl as the reward for the season instead of for National Championships in the craptacular system that we have to deal with in my opinion for another 7 years minimum. (Thanks Tournament of Roses Committee for a deal with ABC through 2014).

1  USC at Notre Dame            20-Oct       $409          1        $379
2  Ohio State at Michigan       17-Nov       $408          3        $876
3  Oklahoma vs. Texas            6-Oct       $400          2        $419
4  UCLA at USC                   1-Dec       $312          4        $172
5  Tennessee at Alabama         20-Oct       $238          5        $181
6  Georgia at Florida           27-Oct       $274          7        $284
7  Texas at Texas A&M           23-Nov       $268          6        $233
8  Alabama at Auburn            24-Nov       $373          8        $321
9  Tennessee at Florida         15-Sep       $248          9        $180
10 Michigan at Michigan State    3-Nov       $218         11        $193
11 Notre Dame at Purdue         29-Sep       $105         10        $281
12 Arkansas at LSU              23-Nov       $128         12        $226
13 California at Stanford        1-Dec       $118         13        $ 77
14 Miami at Florida State       20-Oct       $113         14        $137
15 Army/Navy Game                1-Dec       $285         16        $150
16 Florida State at Florida     24-Nov       $401         15        $195
17 Georgia at Georgia Tech      24-Nov       $156         17        $161
18 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma   24-Nov       $160         19        $228
19 Pittsburgh at West Virginia   1-Dec       $139         18        $ 87
20 Oregon State at Oregon        1-Dec       $170         20        $173
21 Clemson at South Carolina    24-Nov       $414         21        $282
22 Virginia Tech at Virginia    24-Nov       $191         23        $147
23 Iowa at Iowa State           15-Sep       $122         22        $218
24 Arizona at Arizona State      1-Dec       $ 80         24        $ 69
25 Purdue at Indiana            17-Nov       $ 77         25        $ 59

Granted, this is a fairly useless ranking, as it only uses gross dollar volume of tickets sold through StubHub. But it’s interesting nonetheless. Also, it looks like the Washington schools didn’t make the cut.

According to a spokesman for BetUS.com, an online gaming website, if Stanford were playing Notre Dame this week at Palo Alto — the teams are scheduled to meet there for real Nov. 24 — Coach Jim Harbaugh’s Cardinal would be favored by 4 1/2 points over Charlie Weis’ offense-starved Irish. . . .

AccuScore.com, which forecasts games after running variables through a simulation engine 10,000 times, predicted a 27-14 Stanford victory. . . .

Hear that, BCS computers? Adjust yourselves accordingly.

Injuries are injuries, I don’t care. The “Dwarf from Shreveport” sucks and the first throw he makes that wins a game for SC will be his first. Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford: he was a turnover machine in all of them with poor decision making, locking into the first read all the time, and never having the balls to check off to a run when passing doesn’t make sense. And here I thought he had been in the program for 15 years; I guess it just feels like it.

That being said, I blame 100% of the Stanford loss on Pete Carroll and Steve Sarkisian. 100%. You cannot leave a hurt QB out there and keep throwing the ball with the lead in the 4th quarter. Allegedly, with Chauncey Washington—our “power back”—we are supposed to be able to run the ball with a lead, and dodge a bullet against (for example) a very game Stanford team. That was supposed to be the story, but with over five minutes to go, and with us up by 6, we pass on 5 out of 6 plays. What are you doing, Sarkisian? You coached at the next level. Run the ball and punt. I don’t care about the Dwarf’s stats or his Heisman campaign—I want to win games. Win ugly if you must, but just win and worry about the rest of it later. SC was hurt, and we weren’t expecting a fight; but you still had the game won had you and Carroll not screwed it up.

Enjoy 9-3 and the Poinsettia (or Las Vegas or Sun) Bowl, SC fans. That is as good as it gets with this bunch.

One proposal might be USC’s 3-8 in 1991, which included losing a nationally televised opener to the University Formerly Known As Memphis State. But Notre Dame’s no lock to get three wins this season, and did that 3-8 debacle manage zero offensive TDs through the first three weeks?

At any rate, ND very well could lose to the service academies, Duke, and, apparently, Stanford. So three wins is a possibility but my no means a slam dunk.

Other suggestions welcome in the comments …

* Not probation-related.