Southern Cal will not win the Pac-10.

I’m picking only one USC to have a shot at their conference title this year, and if you read above you can see it’s not the powerhouse Trojans. Once again the Men of Troy are stocked with NFL-caliber talent, but the rest of the conference is catching up, and I don’t think the past couple seasons are an indication that Southern Cal has what it takes to make it eight in a row in the Pac-10.

QB Mark Sanchez did fine last season filling in for John David Booty and RB Joe McKnight is a playmaker that’ll have people soon forgetting all about Reggie Bush. Still the Trojans lost some good talent, especially on defense, from a squad that dropped two games last year — including the shocker to Stanford.

I wouldn’t expect another clunker like that out of this team but anyone who thinks they can look past Oregon just because Dennis Dixon is gone might be in for a surprise. Combine that game with a date the very next weekend against last year’s conference co-champion Arizona State and the Trojans have a tough time ahead if they expect to hold on to the crown.

Of course out-of-conference schedule doesn’t go very far in determining the Pac-10 winner, but to say Southern Cal has a huge game in week three when they host Ohio State is a massive understatement. If the Trojans lose that game they’ll be waiving goodbye to their national title hopes before they’ve even started their conference schedule and it could be the catalyst that eventually sends them down from the Pac-10′s top spot.

We’re not going to predict a national title game berth, as some have, but the conference championship seems relatively safe. After all, couldn’t you say the Trojans lost some good talent, especially on defense, from a squad that dropped two games last year pretty much every year? And we’ve certainly lost later than week 3 and still been in contention for the national title.

Our only quibble is that Texas Tech should show up in the worst list, rather than the most boring list (although it certainly qualifies as boring too.)

Pryor says he has narrowed the list to two, but is not letting on which ones. Below is the list of the four schools he is still considering, along with my odds.

• Ohio State (3-1)
• Michigan (9-2)
• Penn State (5-1)
• Oregon (10-1)

5. USC

The Trojans played like the best team in the country in their final four games of 2007, but will go into 2008 with plenty of questions. USC will lose quarterback John David Booty and tight end Fred Davis on offense, along with three very good players on the offensive line. The heart of the defense also will be gone, with tackle Sedrick Ellis, end Lawrence Jackson and linebacker Keith Rivers leaving. But coach Pete Carroll still has plenty of talent on hand. Freshman Joe McKnight looked spectacular against Illinois in the Rose Bowl presented by Citi. Mark Sanchez, a redshirt junior next season, is Booty’s heir apparent, but Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain will battle for the starting job in the spring. Another Arkansas transfer, Damian Williams, should boost the receiving corps. The Trojans’ schedule includes two difficult nonconference games (at Virginia on Aug. 30 and home against Ohio State), but the Pac-10 schedule flips with Oregon, Arizona State and California coming to the Coliseum.

Now, after signing day and the early entry deadline he has revised it.

4. USC Trojans
The Trojans will have to rebuild their offense [blah blah blah]. The defense also takes several hits, [blah blah blah]. But if USC can avoid the injuries that hampered it in 2007 — and if Mark Sanchez or Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain plays well at quarterback — the Trojans again will be a national championship contender.

Plus, with Ohio State jumping from #6 to #3, that makes the game on September 13th a battle of top-five teams on ABC in primetime.

What’s that you say? A preseason #1 team hasn’t won anything since SC in 2004? True. But starting out with support is a good thing any way you look at it.

What?

Am I missing something?

Carroll lost to Oregon his first season, then Carson beat them 44-33, then they didn’t play in 2003 or 2004, then USC beat them 45-13 in Eugene, then 35-10 here in L.A., before losing to them up north again. By my count that makes Bellotti 2-3 against Carroll, and an ugly 2-3 at that.

Was there a scrimmage or something these two teams played that I don’t know about? Or did Bellotti coach the Dolphins for a few years and beat Carroll in the NFL that I don’t remember?

A little help, please.

UPDATE 1: CommishRob weighs in: “Well, 5-3 against USC is I think what Plaschke was going for with that comment. Because when we were all in school, a game against Oregon usually meant a loss (especially in Eugene and usually in a painfully ugly fashion; see 1998, 1999 and 2001).” And while we’re hyping coaches who beat down Paul Hackett, then maybe every NFL defensive coordinator should be considered for the job, too. At any rate, I don’t really get too worried about Bellotti at Oregon, just like I wasn’t over the moon when it looked like SC was trying to hire him eight years ago. I think he’ll make them better, a more consistent 8-4 or 9-3, and beat SC every four or five years… basically, exactly what Oregon is right now. And it makes Oregon one less tough roadie, unless they hire Chris Petersen. Above all, what’s funny is that everyone else in the conference acts like it matters. As long as Pete Carroll is around, and he’s focused and recruiting like he is, and 11-2 is a major disappointment, it doesn’t matter who gets hired. Remember when Jeff Tedford was the new threat? Remember that? Yeah, four straight wins over Cal later, that seems funny in retrospect.

UPDATE 2: Bellotti to stay. So that leaves Skippy Neuheisel in the driver’s seat—or maybe he goes cheap and just promotes Walker (depending on how the defense does in Vegas). Skippy concerns me more than Bellotti, but then again, Skippy didn’t do jack at Colorado and the NCAA will be on him from the get-go, so we’ll see how effective he can be without bending the rules.

But please, oh, please, Santa, let them hire DeWayne Walker.

Ok I am sorry to everyone for not posting in the past 12 days.  After my visit to LA for the yawnfest that was the Homecoming win, I had a business trip then family in town so yeah I forgot to post about week 11.  Ohio State, thanks for playing.

Thursday Night: Holy Sh*t, the Pac-10 on Thursday night.  It gets even better for Thanksgiving with SC at ASU, but tomorrow Oregon tries to stay in the hunt for the BcS title game with a visit to Tucson.  (Erin Andrews will not be in the Top 50 of hots in that Stadium)

Saturday: Ohio State at Michigan (noon ABC, Musburger/Herbstreit) Ok, this game is worth a trip to Pasadena and maybe the end of Lloyd Carr, but Herbie calling this one seriously, ABC/ESPN come on.  Nessler/Greise without McGuire should have called this one and you should have sent Herbie and Brent to Lubbock.

Saturday Night: Oklahoma at Texas Tech (8pm ABC, Nessler/Greise/McGuire) 4-hour game guaranteed.  Maybe OU spits the bit like 2 years in Lubbock but since the Big 12 officials will be out to get Leach, I doubt it.  West Virginia at Cincinnati (7:45pm ESPN Patrick/Blackledge) maybe the Mountaineers will lose so they won’t complain about being 11-1 and left out.

Ok, that is all that I can recommend for Saturday, you can flip by LSU at Ole Miss (3:30pm CBS Lundquist/Danielson) to see if everyone has a problem concentrating when they come to Oxford because they would rather be in the Grove than in the Stadium whipping Ole Miss and Duke at Notre Dame (2:30pm NBC Hammond/Haden) just to see if Lucky #10 can happen.

I hate what has happened to college football because this used to be the best weekend of the year, rivalry Saturday across the country but with selling out for TV and conference title games the next 2 weekends are better this season. (sad)

Also, to everyone who complains that the Pac-10 doesn’t have a conference championship game, F*CK OFF!  The SEC (Die Roy Kramer for creating these things), Big 12 and ACC all went to 12 teams to get to have a title game ($$$$$$$$$$$) that is the only reason.  The Pac-10 teams play everyone now so stop complain or we will go to 12 teams (hello Utah and BYU) and then we can have years where Oregon would miss USC and ASU and everyone would say they haven’t played anyone.  So, let that stupid tired argument go away like Corso needs to.

Tonight: The Battle of the Techs, with the lovely Erin Andrews on the sidelines. I might watch, since there’s nothing else sports-related on television, but these two teams are seriously dull.

Saturday:

• Early Games: Wisconsin at Ohio State on the Big Ten Network (noon Eastern). For those of you without DirecTV enjoy not seeing this game—meanwhile, I will try and watch on mute as Thom Brennaman and Charles Davis suck. FOX and the BTN should fire them now.
• A little Nebraska at Kansas (12:30 Eastern, FSN) should be interesting, if only to see how Mangino looks in his TENT sweatshirt and how Nebraska responds to playing without Sam Keller.
• Navy at ND (2:30 Eastern, NBC). Will the streak end, or can Charlie the Weis make it 44 in a row against the Middies? If I wasn’t going to be in LA for SC’s homecoming, I would probably see how this one goes.
• Late afternoon: none of the 3:30 Eastern kicks are exciting, so you’ll just have to wait until 5:00pm for the Saban Bowl. LSU will be fired up, but since Les Miles is still on their sideline, I like Alabama’s chances if they can keep it close into the 4th quarter.
• Story of the week: ESPN worked it out with the Pac-10 and FSN to broadcast the ASU/Oregon game to the rest of the country (6:45pm Eastern). Bonus points because Gameday will be there, even if they are making Herbstreit fly to Boston after the show instead of trading him for Blackledge. Maybe Herbie hates Mike Patrick as much as the rest of us do? Dennis Dixon for Heisman can take another huge step forward here.
• Finally, the ABC regional games at 8pm are not great, but most of America will get to see if BC can beat FSU at home.

1  USC at Notre Dame            20-Oct       $409          1        $379
2  Ohio State at Michigan       17-Nov       $408          3        $876
3  Oklahoma vs. Texas            6-Oct       $400          2        $419
4  UCLA at USC                   1-Dec       $312          4        $172
5  Tennessee at Alabama         20-Oct       $238          5        $181
6  Georgia at Florida           27-Oct       $274          7        $284
7  Texas at Texas A&M           23-Nov       $268          6        $233
8  Alabama at Auburn            24-Nov       $373          8        $321
9  Tennessee at Florida         15-Sep       $248          9        $180
10 Michigan at Michigan State    3-Nov       $218         11        $193
11 Notre Dame at Purdue         29-Sep       $105         10        $281
12 Arkansas at LSU              23-Nov       $128         12        $226
13 California at Stanford        1-Dec       $118         13        $ 77
14 Miami at Florida State       20-Oct       $113         14        $137
15 Army/Navy Game                1-Dec       $285         16        $150
16 Florida State at Florida     24-Nov       $401         15        $195
17 Georgia at Georgia Tech      24-Nov       $156         17        $161
18 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma   24-Nov       $160         19        $228
19 Pittsburgh at West Virginia   1-Dec       $139         18        $ 87
20 Oregon State at Oregon        1-Dec       $170         20        $173
21 Clemson at South Carolina    24-Nov       $414         21        $282
22 Virginia Tech at Virginia    24-Nov       $191         23        $147
23 Iowa at Iowa State           15-Sep       $122         22        $218
24 Arizona at Arizona State      1-Dec       $ 80         24        $ 69
25 Purdue at Indiana            17-Nov       $ 77         25        $ 59

Granted, this is a fairly useless ranking, as it only uses gross dollar volume of tickets sold through StubHub. But it’s interesting nonetheless. Also, it looks like the Washington schools didn’t make the cut.

Tonight: #2 BC at #8 Virginia Tech, Hokie Hokie Hi.

Tomorrow: Boise St at Fresno St, Can Boise win without the marrying man Ian Johnson?

Saturday:

Gameday: at Penn State as the ESPN/ABC corporate plan comes together with Gameday and the ABC national night game at the same place. Note, you will find no college football on ESPN during the day tomorrow as Breeder’s Cup Horse Racing takes over the Worldwide Leader.

This is my schedule and it should be yours:

• USC at Oregon (3:00pm EDT FSN). Will SC step up and take over the Pac-10 again or will Dennis Dixon (Vince Young StarterKit) lead Oregon to the top of the conference and give them a shot at the title game? CBS will be showing you the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” at 3:30pm and I might flip over for the chance at an outstanding crowd shot.
• Kansas at Texas A&M (7:00pm EDT ESPN2). I like this better than UCLA/WSU (6:30pm FSN) and South Carolina at Tennessee (7:45pm ESPN).
• Ohio State at Penn State (8:00pm ABC). Can Ohio State survive the “White Out” and keep its run atop the BCS standings?
• Cal at ASU (10:15pm FSN). ASU has played no one, so let’s find if they are for real or if Tedford’s boys will continue their losing ways.

Scott Wolf of the Daily News reports that Sanchez will start unless Carroll and Sarkisian change their mind before Saturday.

The McPaper/Multi-color gives America a nice story on how great Oregon’s offense is with the Vince Young Starter Kit at QB.

No one at CBSSports.com gives SC a chance this week.

Also, somebody please explain to me why our game is at noon on Saturday?